Jeff Teague is a player to target as his value is on the rise
The owners who win weekly fantasy basketball competitions are those who accurately evaluate and react the early action. Selling high or buying low is a key component of fantasy sports, and this should serve as a guide for who to target, and who to shop.
Sell
Marc Gasol – Is he talented? Yes. And I’d take him in a second if I was an NBA GM, but Gasol’s production is a bit magnified due to the injury to ZBo. Gasol has never attempted more than 9.4 shots per game and I expect him to regress closer to 9 attempts per game than the 10.3 he currently averages. On top of Randolph getting healthy, Gasol’s career numbers suggest a dip is imminent due to the compressed schedule. Over his career, Gasol averages fewer points, blocks and rebounds when playing back to back games and also shoots a lower percentage from the field.
Tim Duncan – Years of greatness won’t win you this year’s fantasy title. Duncan is averaging a career low 26 minutes, 6.9 rebounds, and 12.4 points. He is taking (11) and making (5) less shots on a per game basis than at any point in his storied career. He is making only 2 of every 3 free throws, hurting you there as well. The minimal production is without Manu Ginobili, making it safe to assume that this is the most involved we will see the 35 year old center.
DeMarcus Cousins – He is a special talent, and I have no problem saying he has the potential to be elite some day, but not for the Kings. His ears sit aside of a ticking time bomb, and I am not sure how long DCuz can produce for an awful team before he goes nuts. His game has progressed nicely, as he is better from the stripe and on the glass. He’s nearly doubled his blocks per game, ranking eighth in the league. The tools are in place, but how long do you trust him to play hard for a team stuck in quick sand. The 4-10 Kings aren’t getting better, and if they don’t shop Cousins, he will be a headache to them, and eventually, deadweight to your fantasy squad.
Buy
Deron Williams – Dwill hasn’t averaged less than 9.2 dimes per game since his rookie year, so stay patient as his current average of 8.2 apg is sure to rise. Take into account that he averages 1.5 more apg after the all star game, and you’re right where you should expect to be in the assists department. He is a 46% shooter for his career from the field, so don’t fret his 36.6 in the early going. Instead, be encouraged that he is taking more shots than at any other point in his career. O and by the way, a Dwight Howard acquisition is still in the works. Worst case scenario: Brook Lopez comes back healthy instead of dealing for Dwight, and you still have an all star point producer in the middle.
Caron Butler – May not be thought of as it, but he is the purest scorer on Lob City. With Chris Paul and Chauncey Billups distributing and Blake Griffin collapsing defenses, Butler has had more open looks from downtown. While his percentage is still down lower than you’d like (31.6%), the increase in attempts is encouraging. I would expect him to improve that percentage as the season progresses, as he makes his game fit the Clipper style. He is averaging the same amount of shots as he did in his golden years in Washington, and will contribute solid percentages. Add in a handful of rebounds, a couple of assists, and over a steal per game, and you’ve got a solid fantasy contributor. It seems as if he’s been around forever, but don’t forget that Butler is 31 years old, far too young to be written off in the fantasy world.
Jeff Teague – The Hawks guard is coming into his own quickly, and the fantasy community needs to recognize him as a viable PG. He has an increased scoring role (attempting 6.6 more field goals and 1.3 more threes per game) and has managed to increase his efficiency (shooting percentage sits at 45.1%, up from 43.8%). Those numbers are nice, but his 5.9 assists (up from 2) and 2.2 steals (up from 0.6) are where fantasy owners benefit the most. Steals is a category, just like points or assists, and while not as sexy, it is still part of winning. Josh Smith and Joe Johnson are studs, and will continue to be great options for Teague to target. The Al Horford injury leaves a scoring void … hmm … I see an opening for an even greater breakout.
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